A Beginner's Guide to Bitcoin's Lightning Network - Binance
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CDCs business model explained - And how this benefits you
wanted to make this post a long time ago but never found the time around it. Right now I feel it justifies a simplified version where I think people can do their own calculations and assumptions. Please put your own opinion on it. But I hope this explains a bit why CDCs decision was good (for them) but not for us.
Their original idea turned a flop. Why? The Cashbacks. I loved the cashbacks but from a business perspective they made no sense: - Other companies cap the cashbacks because they are loss making. - CDC had to share creditcard revenue with AND visa AND wirecard. - Cashbacks are used for crosselling (get a bank account, insurance, loan for your house etc). The lifetime value of a customer makes it viable. - A big chunck of their customers (EU) live in an area where creditcard companies’ shares on purchases are capped at lower rate than the cashbacks. I think this point needs almost no further explanation as the increases costs to get a card clearly show CDC understand this as well.
Industry standard rates, but unsustainable. If you take someones money for interest that means you earn a higher interest rate on that money than you give back. Might be possible with crypto on the short term but very risky. Arguments that you can get these rates on for example SGD are invalid as SGD is not pegged to BTC. Some rates such as the rate for CRO is indeed sustainable for CDC. Don’t want to go too far in it as other people will be more knowledgable in this than me, but: something about interest rate & inflation.
Only use of this is to use it for leverage trading. If you need a loan you wont lock 100% to receive 50%.
Their mastermove, and with a domain like crypto.com the ability to get very big. Google how much Binance made and you know the possibilities. On top of this they created their own monopoly on CRO. Making sure all tokens held by customers are effectively locked. This means they will earn money twice: - On the trading fee; and - On selling you the crypto used to pay the trading fee.
I suspect the four elements described above are all loss-making as of now. But who cares? CDC managed to do what every company dreams of: providing their own financing by printing money. Best of it: 1) they control the price, 2) no need to pay it back, and 3) no need to pay interest. Not even triple A countries with negative interest rates get this good of a deal as they won’t be able to refinance those bonds into perpetuity.
We do not own shares, we own tokens. To make this a valuable investment you want your tokens to go up in value. I know as of now both are up in value but looking longer term here. The value of your tokens can be drilled down to the following: supply and demand. MCO: First of all, I am in favour of CDC using a fractional reserve, or capital requirement to reinvest your money. Ofcourse with checks on their risk profile but how else are they gonna make money from your stakes. It cant be only giving cashbacks and free cards. With or without a reserve the value of MCO would go up eventually. - locking cards causes buying pressure - card cashbacks cause buying pressure (assuming not resold immediately) - Dynamic pricing of cards would cause selling pressure (when CDC is out of MCO it is up to you to sell, some people are happy to sell for $10, keeping the same card and basically freeing an extra card (or 5 - fractional reserve) for someone else. Others want to do it later. Significant gains on your MCO might take long with this process and is based on adoption but would come. CRO:
Trading fees cause demand
Syndicates cause demand (less sustainable as rewards are quite limited with the current oversubscription.
The problem here is the absence of the long term incentive for CRO holders. Right now CRO made very good gains. Personally I don’t understand why but also I cant complain about what it gave me. But in the long term CDC controls the supply. You will never get the good deal you wanted because there is such an absolute whale on the market. See how a bitcoin whale can influence the price of a token and compare their small share to the massive amount of CRO held by CDC. This will not be viable until the market controls the token - which is far, far in the future. Just my thoughts. Do with it as you please. You may not agree, which is your good right. But I hope it makes you think critically about what you are investing in and about the implications of a swap. As in my opinion the upside potential of MCO gets moved from the token investor to CDC. A smart move from their side, one that I totally understand. But there are clearly some losers here (me, us).
This thing is long af and I'm on of those guys now...
Hey guys. One last big dramatic post, even though it feels kind of awkward now since I had no idea I'd attract as much attention as I did with the one yesterday. But a few people asked directly what happened and I feel like I ought to do this. (u/trb0x, u/NefariousNaz) The amount of self-reflection and encouragement I received was astonishing. And u/jtnichol thank you for the gold! I’ve got a lot of respect for you as a moderator and you’ve been great pulling the sub together this last few weeks especially. So I was going into the field for drill (National Guard Reserves US) and I wasn't going to have an opportunity to sell a little peth at a time and edge my liquidation down as u/TheRealDatapunk suggested. When I got back today I saw the amazing reactions to my post and saw that the PETH/Eth ratio changed slightly to put my liquidation at 184.xx. As you guys may have seen, we went to 185.01 on Binance. I took advantage of this bounce to drop the liquidation price again to 165 by selling PETH bit by bit, I'll probably try to lower it further tonight, but I’ve made my peace with getting squeezed out if it happens. It still feels horrible to sell Eth for less than half my avg cost, but it is what it is. I feel lucky (For now, although I know we are likely to keep dropping), and also awful for other people that got squeezed so far. u/JakovTheJakovasaur, u/BakedEnt, u/richyboycaldo, I hope you guys made it I really do. It got me thinking: Part of what grew Bitcoin into what it is today was the community. And this sub is a stellar (no pun intended) example of that. We're a community. We talk about the latest toys like Augur or God's Unchained, debate the politics of issuance and such, and provide support and advice for one another. We are all here because we saw the same thing and recognized its’ value. These losses suck. We may love the tech but we all invested for the money. Like I said this has been a hard lesson, but even if ETH continues to tank and never recovers to ATH (I still know it can, but if it doesn’t…) then we’ll still be a community of people enthralled by the evolution of this wonderful protocol, and the crypto space in general. The ecosystem won’t die because the price can’t hit 1000 again. Looking through the sub I can’t see how any but the most desperate and sadistic trolls would really be entertained considering how well people have been handling their liquidations and supporting one another. We are not undignified, we are not a laughing stock, because we knew what we were getting ourselves into when we signed up for this roller-coaster. I just want to emphasize again how blown away by what an amazing community this is, and I’m right there with all y’all with heavy losses. To answer u/91143fd7dc4a5c4e7e74 My loss so far is in the five-figure range. And is (was) most of my savings. It is more than some of you, and less than others. I’m young and inexperienced. It isn’t the end of the world for me, and it isn’t for any of you either. Don’t let anyone make you feel bad about taking the gamble and putting your money where your beliefs were. Even if it only turned out to be a costly lesson. Take the lesson to heart. Be careful with leverage, diversify (Not just in coins, mind you), never assume you know how far the market “can” go, don’t dismiss the bears entirely, be scrutinizing about the timing of your investment, and don’t FOMO even if you think what you see is cheap. This isn’t your only opportunity to achieve wealth in life, and wealth isn’t all there is to life anyway. I think I am still gonna prowl the sub every so often, but I’m definitely taking a break. Anyone that actually read all of this I hope you got something out of it, and l wish you the best! (Even the shorters…good game.)
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